Iowa’s Republicans and Democrats vote for their candidates tomorrow, earlier than ever before – thanks, I think, to a Constitutional edict (they put this stuff in Constitutions? That’s worse than the EU) that Iowa must vote first. Thanks to various other States moving their dates back (NEEENNEERRR Iowa!) Iowa’s had to backpedal almost as far as it can go, to Jan 3.
So what’s going to happen tomorrow?
Well, it’d be MAJOR if Hillary missed out for the Dems. She’s leading by 20 points in most polls. Such a divisive figure, but a misunderstood character. (Most complex situations have simple explanations: to learn why Hillary can’t keep Bill’s hands off interns, just look at her medical history. She and Bill have had physical – not psychological – problems having sex since the earliest days of their marriage; I’ll bet Bill’s appetite for a ‘type of sex’ not involving vaginas stems from this.) She’s confident, forthright, smart, and has the most intelligent ex-president in the USA’s short history backing her up.
So Hillary’s my man. Bill was once called ‘the best Republican president the USA’s ever had’, and similarly, ‘the first Black president.’ Hillary walks the same line. Genuinely unprejudiced and hardassed, she’s just the leader America needs to heal the vast chasm between it and the 97% of humans who aren’t American.
Strangely, though, I quite like Barack too. A lightweight yet to be tested beyond the soundbite – but: a foreign-raised, mixed-race under-50 in the Oval Office? Think of the possibilities! This guy could talk to ANYONE, do ANYTHING, not bound by policy or reputation. No dirt on him whatsoever. A Will Smith of politics: he’ll get the vote of EVERY black in America, with massive crossover appeal too. Whereas Hillary would heal America’s rift with the world, Barack would heal the divisions within America itself. And that’s a blockbuster.
And as a bonus – what would be the calming effect on the Middle East, of having a US president whose middle name is Hussein?
The Republican race is closer: Guiliani seems ahead, but only by a percentage point or two, and that’s too close to call. Guiliani would be a pretty good president (even if we’re not measuring against W, surely America’s worst president ever) but let’s face it – ANYONE looks good next to the current White House.
And it’s not as if Iowa is a killer. If Hillary loses, she’s the only one who’d withdraw: the race remains open even among other Iowa losers. And if Obama wins tomorrow – unlikely but possible – he’s then a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination, and the Dems can concentrate on pushing his good points all the way to November. Not a bad outcome even if the upset happens.
Of course, there’s one other oddity: the Iowa pushback means that American politics is now nothing to do with public policy, and everything to do with election tactics, with the campaign already on the road and continuing for the whole year.